The Pandemic Bubble And What Smart Shoppers Saw Coming

At some points during the pandemic, it was easier to buy a Ford F-150 than it was to buy a roll of toilet paper– and for quite a while, pickup truck prices were just the craziest. Suddenly, folks were second-guessing public transit, trading older cars in for newer ones to help eliminate uncertainty in their lives, and (importantly) looking to spend more time outside and away from one another.

The pandemic poured gas on an already-hot adventure-vehicle market that was expanding to include the first hybrid-powered Toyota Tundra, the first electric-powered F-150, and heavy-duty models that were churning out more torque than ever.

The Maverick and Santa Cruz promised lower prices, but base-model units could be tricky to find, and available units often traded for higher-than-MSRP levels. People paid ridiculous amounts of money over asking to be among the first to buy the new Ford Bronco.

Meanwhile, full-size model after full-size model deployed top-dog grades with luxury SUV sticker prices and interiors trimmed like your favorite luxury steakhouse. All this commotion pushed used pickup prices skyward. With supply chains disrupted and model years muddled, shoppers turned to the used market, where pickup inventory was pretty plentiful.

An immediate surge in demand triggered immediate predatory pricing that saw a roughly one-percent-per-week surge in used truck values, to their pandemic level peak in early 2022, according to a report by WolfStreet.com using Manheim data. At this point, truck inventory was turning over rapidly.

So, has the bubble finally popped? Not exactly, and as we’ll see below, the future is anyone’s guess. Still, current data shows a gradual and sustained softening of prices that may be pushing things back towards normality, as data shows that post-pandemic price plunges surrendered 60 percent of their pandemic gains. While window stickers remained high, the real story was panning out in dealer back lots, where surplus inventory was starting to become a liability.

The Secret Depreciation Sleeper Of The Big Three

Credit: GMC

From the pandemic pricing peak of early 2022, here’s what’s going on with some of the pickups you’re most likely considering from the used market today, with regards to pricing and depreciation.

Over the past five years, the Chevrolet Silverado 1500 has depreciated by about 42 percent, ditto the GMC Sierra. Data from CarEdge.com shows how the pandemic put the brakes on depreciation.

The 2020 Silverado depreciated 7.4 percent in its first year (2020), 14 percent in its second year (2021), but only seven percent in both its third and fourth years (2022, 2023), right along with that pandemic pricing peak. In its fifth year, 2024, depreciation catches back up, now coming in at 33 percent. That’s a decline of $18,837.

When it comes to the Ford F-150, a Jalopnik report citing 2025 data from KBB.com calls it the fastest-depreciating truck on the market, and one of the slowest-selling. Looking back at five-year depreciation data from CarEdge.com, we see used pricing play out similarly to the GM truck in the previous paragraph: a 2020 Ford F-150 would lose seven percent of its value in the first year (2020), 21 percent in its second year (2021), but just seven percent apiece in 2022 and 2023 when used prices were highest.

In 2024, the depreciation curve for that 2020 model-year truck returns to its expected steepness, with a 31 percent decline.

Credit: Ford

There’s another point worth looking into here: The 2021-2022 F-150 PowerBoost Hybrids are finally hitting the used market in volume, after launching as tricky-to-find “miracle” trucks during the pandemic. Some buyers are wary of out-of-warranty hybrid battery complexity, with uncertainty affecting pricing to make the F-150 a “buyer’s market” sleeper. Keep your eye on this one.

On the Ram 1500, it’s a similar story. Historical depreciation data from CarEdge.com shows a 2020 Ram 1500 would lose 11 percent of its value in its first year (2020), and 15 percent the following year (2021). In 2022 and 2023, high pandemic-level pricing meant that the 2020 model year Ram 1500 would only lose six and 10 percent of its value in model years 2022 and 2023.

CarEdge doesn’t list depreciation data for 2024 and 2025, but a depreciation hit of about a third, maybe slightly more, is a reasonable assumption that brings it in line with the rest of the big three.

Read the full article on CarBuzz

This article originally appeared on CarBuzz and is republished here with permission.