For most of Donald Trump’s first term, violent crime was on the decline. That changed in a big way back in 2020, when the closure of schools and courts, combined with the “defund the police” movement and riots in several American cities led to the biggest one-year murder spike in U.S. history.
The spike was short-lived, but the gun control lobby spent most of the Biden years proclaiming Trump had made things worse. That narrative doesn’t hold much water given that in the first year of his second term, homicides actually declined to at least a 60-year low. Brady head Kris Brown, though, is predicting that the president’s policies are going to cause another increase in violent crime… just not yet.
The focus of Brown’s broadside is the package of rules introduced by the ATF earlier this year. There are more than 30 proposals that have been outlined by the agency, but the gun control lobby has focused its attention on just a few. One of them is the ATF’s effort to modernize the existing rule on non-over-the-counter sales and allow for gun buyers to purchase firearms online through an FFL in the state where they live. Even though the buyer would still have to prove their identity and pass a background check before the transfer can take place, Brown wants the general public to believe that this rule will somehow enable criminals to easily arm themselves.
Currently, when someone purchases a gun online, it still has to be shipped to a licensed dealer. There, the potential buyer must pass an in-person background check before they can complete the purchase. That in-person moment matters more than you may realize. Gun dealers are empowered to be gatekeepers, ensuring that each sale is safe by recognizing warning signs of dangerous transactions, including mental distress, suspicious third-party purchases, and risks of harm to self or others. But the measures offered up by the Trump administration do away with in-person background checks. Instead, this crucial safeguard would be replaced by a computer screen that is dangerously susceptible to fraud and deepfakes. It’s like replacing airport security with an online questionnaire. That’s why even gun retailers oppose this rule, noting that online verification can’t replicate strong safety measures.
According to the ATF’s proposed rule, “Several federal agencies, including the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (‘‘NHTSA’’), the Small Business Administration, and the Internal Revenue Service (‘‘IRS’’) have implemented IAL2 remote identity proofing. The IRS, for example, allows individual taxpayers to create an ID.me account to access IRS-held information requiring identity verification.”
The ATF’s proposed rule would apply the same standard to would-be gun buyers, who would have to submit proof of their identity to both the FFL and a third-party credential service provider, who would verify that their documents match the person they’re interacting with in a live video conference. In other words, FFLs are still going to have an “in-person” moment. It will just take place online.
As for the FFLs who are opposing these rules, most of them are smaller, independent shops who are rightfully concerned about the impact the rule change might have on their bottom line.
Brown calls the ATF reform package a “a dire threat to all Americans,” predicting that “if they become finalized, guns will be more likely than ever to end up in the hands of dangerous purchasers, including gun traffickers, domestic abusers, and children.”
Of course, the gun control lobby has said the same thing about the demise of “may issue” licensing schemes, the rise of permitless carry, increased gun sales, and the diversification of gun owners. Yet here we are with the lowest homicide rate since at least 1960, and so far this year murders appear to be down by almost 20 percent compared to last year’s already historic decline.
Crime rates rise and fall, so sooner or later the gun control lobby will be able to point to an increase and declare “I told you so.” There is zero evidence, however, that any of the rule changes proposed by the ATF will make it easier for criminals to illegally acquire firearms or cause violent crime to skyrocket.
Editor’s Note: The radical Left will stop at nothing to enact their radical gun control agenda and strip us of our Second Amendment rights.
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