It is “inconceivable” that Chinese President Xi Jinping assured U.S. President Donald Trump during their recent encounter in Asia that military action against Taiwan is off the table, an expert on foreign relations told Military.com.
Trump met and engaged with his Chinese counterpart on Thursday in Busan, South Korea, timed as part of the annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). The five-day foray overseas included meeting with leaders of Cambodia and Thailand, leading to the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accords. The U.S. president also signed trade deals with Cambodia and Malaysia, met with Japanese leadership, and shored up trade frameworks with Thailand and Vietnam as well as reached critical mineral deals.
One topic that, according to Trump was never discussed with Xi, was Taiwan. Fears and consternation surrounding China’s hypothetical military intervention in that region have long been held, due to China’s consistent presence in Taiwanese airspace and military threats. U.S. intelligence has long been apprehensive that an attack at some future juncture is imminent.
“This never even came up yesterday, as a subject,” Trump told CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell on Sunday’s episode of 60 Minutes when asked about the subject. “[Xi] never brought it up. People were a little surprised at that. He never brought it up, because he understands it, and he understands it very well.
“Taiwan is a very interesting case. It’s 69 miles away from China. We’re 9,500 miles away. But that doesn’t matter. He understands—what will happen. He and I have spoken about it. But it was never even brought up during a two and a ha—or two-and-a-half-hour meeting we had yesterday.”
Trump added: “I don’t want to give away—I can’t give away my secrets. I don’t want to be one of these guys that tells you exactly what’s gonna happen if something happens. The other side knows, but—I’m not somebody that tells you everything because you’re askin’ me a question. But they understand what’s gonna happen. And—he has openly said, and his people have openly said at meetings, ‘We would never do anything while President Trump is president’ because they know the consequences.”
Taiwan’s Importance to China
Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, doesn’t buy Trump’s narrative.
“I find it inconceivable that President Xi explicitly assured President Trump that China would not take military action against Taiwan (to achieve reunification or in the unlikely event that Taiwan were to declare independence) during Trump’s presidency, or indeed at any time beyond that,” Menon told Military.com.
“That would be completely out of character with Chinese policy and Xi’s diplomatic style. Plus, Taiwan is of such great importance to the Chinese authorities that do not explicitly rule out this or that measure when it comes to national reunification,” he added.
Menon, in a Substack post about the two world leaders’ exchange, wrote that the current U.S.-China relationship
Richard Haas, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote Nov. 1 in Tomorrow’s Affairs that the meeting was more about a trade-based stalemate than easing geopolitical tensions. The lack of Taiwan’s place in the discussion causes wariness.
“Perhaps more important, what did not emerge from the Trump-Xi meeting is any comprehensive rationale for this era of US-China relations, one that governs not just trade and investment but also geopolitical differences,” Haas wrote. “No surprise, then, that these talks ended with no common understanding about Taiwan, while China’s purchases of Russian energy and support of Russia’s military will continue.
“While these issues are sure to come up and even dominate Trump’s announced visit to China next April, progress is far from guaranteed.”
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