The gun control lobby’s efforts to get a ban on gas-operated semi-automatic firearms that can accept detachable magazines has been a mixed bag so far this year. Colorado’s SB 3 is expected to be approved by Gov. Jared Polis, but not before being watered down to allow for the continued sale of those items to those who undergo additional training and don’t mind having the state keep tabs on their ownership. 

In New Mexico, meanwhile, Democrats failed to advance their version of the “GOSAFE Act” introduced in Washington, D.C. by New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich before this year’s regular session ended on Saturday, but Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is still making noise about bringing lawmakers back to Santa Fe for a special session dealing with crime and public safety, so the measure could be revived in the weeks ahead. 

And in Rhode Island, the fight over the sweeping semi-auto ban is just beginning, with a hearing for HR 5436 scheduled to take place in the House Judiciary Committee today. 

The gun lobby has spent days trying to get as many Rhode Island gun owners as possible into gun stores to pick up yellow “2nd Amendment” T-shirts in the hopes that they’ll wear them to the State House on Wednesday so lawmakers see how many people oppose the ban, which is up for hearing that day.

“Of course if you’re in a pinch, any yellow shirt will work,” the local organizing group, RI Gun Rights, advised on its website.

The other side in this perennial debate – the side that believes the fewer “military-style” weapons on the street, the less chance of a mass shooting – has put out an urgent call to its own backers to show up wearing orange. 

“This is one of the most important days at the State House to make our voices heard,” the Rhode Island Coalition Against Gun Violence wrote in an email blast. “The gun extremists will be out in full force and we need to have a great presence!”

A recent poll conducted for the Rhode Island AFL-CIO by the well-established Fleming & Associates found 64% of Rhode Islanders support a ban on the sale and manufacture of “assault weapons.”

I haven’t seen the language used to describe the bill in that poll, but my guess is that most Rhode Islanders are unaware of the scope of this bill, which would ban almost every semi-automatic long gun currently available in the state. Current owners would be allowed to maintain possession of their firearms, but only if they register their guns with their local police department or the Rhode Island State Police. 

Even before the hearing begins, lawmakers have been getting a lot of public comments from residents about the gun ban bill. 

“How many times has one lunatic shot up a bar or a crowd for no reason at Any-Place USA? And the media eats it up, jumping on the opportunity to put this random act of violence in everyone’s face and drumming up fear that guns are public enemy number one,” wrote Aaron Laramee.

“This is pushed all over the media as a ‘mass shooting.’ Sounds scary, doesn’t it? It’s supposed to! That’s how ‘woke/progressive’ groups get the un-knowing/un-thinking anti-gun public behind them,” Laramee continued. “They want you to believe that every time you go out in public there’s an incredible risk of being shot by these ‘Pro-Gunner,’ ‘2nd Amendment lunatics.'”

“I will NOT register ANY of my firearms!” he vowed.

And this from the pro-ban side:

Bruce Daigle, a retired principal at St. Patrick Academy, a small Catholic high school on Smith Hill, offered a different perspective on the “psychological impact” of the repeated “active shooter drills … our students will go through almost 200 times before they graduate.” 

“Living [with] the fear of annihilation as these children sit in a classroom, church, or theater, or walk through a shopping mall is as much an assault on them as the violent acts they prepare to face,” he wrote.

I hate to break it to Daigle, but banning the most popular rifles in the country isn’t necessary to stop inflicting the psychological impact of active shooter drills. School districts across the state could end that practice today if officials want, and even if the ban takes effect I wouldn’t be surprised to see them continue. After all, more shootings on a K-12 campus involve handguns than long guns of any kind, and HR 5436 won’t stop a single madman intent on murder from walking onto a campus and carrying out an attack. 

Rhode Island has also already banned “large capacity’ magazines that can accept more than ten rounds of ammunition (which is currently the subject of litigation in federal court), but that’s not enough to satisfy the voracious appetite of the anti-gunners. And since HR 5436 already has the endorsement of more than half of the House of Representatives, its almost a foregone conclusion that the bill will advance out of the lower chamber no matter how many hundreds of yellow-shirted gun owners are on hand for today’s hearing. 

Still, their presence could have an impact once the bill makes its way to the state Senate, where the bill faces a more uncertain future. Senate President Dominick Ruggerio has opposed similar gun ban bills in the past, but has said he’s open to considering the legislation this year. As the Boston Globe reports, however, there are a lot of variables at play… including whether Ruggerio will remain as the Senate leader for the rest of the session. 

House Speaker Joe Shekarchi has repeatedly said he supports the ban, but he has raised constitutional questions about the way McKee’s proposal was written and has said including it in the budget – which requires support from a super majority in both chambers – would make it more difficult to pass. 

Still, there is overwhelming support from Democrats in the House to approve a ban, so it seems likely that Shekarchi will allow some version of the legislation to move forward in the current legislative session.

The question is when.

The fear that gun safety advocates have is that Shekarchi will wait until the end of the legislative session to approve a bill, and there won’t be enough time to convince the Senate Judiciary Committee to support it.

The Senate Judiciary Committee appears to be evenly divided on an assault weapons ban, which means the committee could need ex officio members like Ruggerio, Majority Leader Val Lawson, and Majority Whip David Tikoian to vote just to get it out of committee. (If it makes it to the Senate floor, the consensus is that it will be approved.)

But here’s the catch.

With Ruggerio struggling with health issues, a sudden change in Senate leadership could throw a wrench into the Democrats’ plans. While Lawson supports the ban, it’s no secret that Senator Frank Ciccone is trying to piece together votes to succeed Ruggerio as president if a change happens this year. 

Ciccone is a staunch gun rights supporter. In fact, for years, he was a private firearms dealer. The fear among gun safety advocates is that he would block an assault weapons ban if he became the president (and that might be his pitch to Republicans in order to secure the leadership post).

The Globe suggests that passage of a semi-auto ban is more likely than not this year, since legislators don’t have to face voters in November, but gun owners aren’t going to simply forget this assault on their fundamental freedom to keep and bear arms if HR 5436 does become law. And if lawmakers won’t see the light about the constitutional and pragmatic problems with banning commonly-owned arms, hopefully the grassroots opposition to HR 5436 will help them feel the heat from their constituents.