John Lott just dropped a major update in the fight over Hawaii’s sweeping gun-free-zone law, filing a fresh amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court in Wolford v. Lopez.
And yes, this one’s loaded. Lott teamed up with the Peace Officers Research Association of California (PORAC) and the California Association of Highway Patrolmen to walk SCOTUS through 46 pages of data, research, and, frankly, common sense about why Hawaii’s law is both unconstitutional and dangerous to the public.
Lott’s core point is simple: concealed-carry permit holders aren’t the problem, never have been.
The brief cites sixteen of his own peer-reviewed papers and multiple studies by CPRC research director Carl Moody, showing that CCW holders are some of the most law-abiding people in the country.
In 26 states with comprehensive data, revocation rates for permits sit under 0.2%, and permit holders are convicted of gun-related violations at 1/12th the rate of police officers and 1/240th the rate of the general population (yes, really).
PORAC’s own president, Brian Marvel, said it plainly: violent criminals don’t bother with CCW permits. They just carry illegally. Hawaii’s law, by default, disarms the good guys while criminals ignore the rules entirely.
The data in the brief also hits the bigger picture: the whole narrative that “right-to-carry laws increase crime” falls apart under real statistical scrutiny.
When you compare apples to apples (properly controlling for differences in permitting systems), Lott shows that right-to-carry laws actually reduce violent crime, with murders dropping by as much as 6.47% and rapes by nearly 10%.
Even using cost-weighted models that combine all violent-crime types, the analysis shows RTC laws cut violent-crime costs by 5.7–6.5%.
And then there’s the gun-free-zone problem. The brief lays out decades of data showing that the overwhelming majority of mass public shootings — 92% — take place in gun-free zones where killers know victims can’t shoot back.
Even mass shooters themselves have admitted they choose these locations on purpose. Hawaii’s law would turn nearly all private property into one massive “sensitive place,” exactly the kind of blanket ban Bruen warned against.
Lott’s conclusion is blunt: Hawaii’s presumption-of-non-consent rule isn’t just historically unsupported, it actively makes people less safe. Law-abiding citizens are chilled out of carrying, criminals face less resistance, and police can’t be everywhere at once.
With SCOTUS already agreeing to hear the case, this brief lands at exactly the right time. If the Court follows the Constitution, and the numbers, Hawaii’s law should fall hard.
You can read Lott’s full brief HERE.
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